Year-to-Date Performance Update October 17
+ 2025Market Outlook
Market Outlook going forward
The US debt situation is becoming acute, driving a flight to safety toward gold, while traditional safe-haven treasuries remain flat.
A potential banking crisis looms as most banks are capitalized by bonds, which may turn into “certificates of confiscation” if debt becomes unsustainable.
In inflationary times, capital is shifting to securities with unlimited notional value (e.g., gold, silver, stocks), boosting demand for these assets.
Sanctions and supply chain risks threaten stock viability, creating uncertainty across equities.
Physical assets like gold, silver, and uranium are safer bets in volatility, with options providing leveraged exposure.
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
YTD Trading Strategy & Performance
I’ve leveraged the fund to gold price exposure to capitalize on this outlook on the market. The original position (top chart, expiring June 2026) delivered a remarkable 1,100% return. I’ve trimmed 75% of that position, reallocating into new GLD trades expiring in 2027 and 2028, anticipating continued strength and volatility in gold prices.
Initial Investment into GLD: ~$6,000 USD in May 2025.
Current Exposure: ~$75,000 USD, a 12x increase, showcasing the power of leverage.
Performance Metrics (from fundseeder.com):
Annualized Return: 447.39%
Adj. Sortino Ratio: 15.46
Return/Max DD: 38.65
YTD Return: 86.5% (per track record).
Simultaneously, I’m running options-selling strategies (covered calls and cash secured Puts) on mining and Chinese tech ETFs to harvest volatility, holding these for the long term. See below for performance on going short options.
The fund was on track for a 25% YTD gain before gold’s recent upside volatility accelerated returns.
Historical Context
Compare past drawdowns of (whopping!) 70% when the fund relied solely on long, out-of-the-money positions with significantly less capital under management. The shift to a diversified options strategy has reduced risk while amplifying gains.
More Charts & Data
Absolute Performance (2025 YTD): Annualized Return 173.24%, with a steady upward trend.
Interactive Brokers Performance: +140.28% YTD, +38.30% this month.
Covered Call Report: Total premiums $32,469.80, capital at risk weighted around $100,000, average premium $266.15 per week with a weekly ROI 0.79%.
GLD Options: Significant unrealized P&L (e.g., <100% on GLD calls, 243.4% on GLD Bull Spread).
What I might trade next week:
I am looking for 50% assignment risks in the tickers GDX, SILJ, URA and IBIT amongst others, with both cash secured puts if I do not have a position, or covered calls if I do. These are some I am looking at.
Volatility is extremely high right now, so I am wary of strong whipsaw pullbacks when selling puts. Going further out of the money would cushion any downsides with the tradeoff being lower premiums.
Have fun, and remember, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH. I am simply sharing what I am doing. Stay tuned for further updates as we navigate this volatile market!
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
